The Coffee Export Association (Cecafa) has predicted that Brazil Coffee exports could fall somewhat around mid-year due to an expected decline in stocks. However, it is expected that the overall exports in 2016 could be similar to 2015 if there is a strong harvest.
Reports indicate that Brazil exported a record 33.33 million bags of green coffee in 2015 alone, surpassing 32.94 million bags in 2014. As at December 2015, Brazils exports were 2.89 million bags, down from 3.23 million bags in November of the same year. All total coffee exports (both roasted and soluble coffees) reached a record 36.89 million bags last year.
Analysts have pointed that over the past two years, Brazil's coffee belt has suffered drought, thereby hurting both Arabica and Robusta output. It is further revealed that despite the overall high coffee exports, Arabica shipments were actually down in 2015 at 29.16 million bags from 29.49 million bags in 2014.
According to data from Cecafa, the losses in Arabica were compensated by high exports record gained from Robusta at 4.17 million bags in 2015. These exports eventually filled the gap and also pushing shipments to their highest levels as compared to the shipment of 3.45 million bags of Robusta beans in 2014.
Globally, Brazil is second only to the United Sates in consumption of coffee. Domestic coffee consumption in 2015 was at 20.4 million bags despite the severe economic downturn but it is expected to grow to 21 million bags in 2016.

MITC, 20th January 2016.