Over the past months, the global sugar production outlook is reported to have taken a further downward turn in view of the next 2016/17 (Oct/Sept) season. Global sugar supply and demand projections show that the shortage is now expected to rise by 0.75 million to 8.0 million tonnes from the previous update. Of great importance, the shortfall in the ensuing 2016/17 season has been raised to 4.9 million tones from 1.5 million previously.
From its previous estimate, the global sugar production in the year 2015/16 was reduced by 1.6 million tonnes. This tonnes can be projected currently to be a total of 174.6 million tonnes given the October/September basis. This result was based on the major change in the production output of several countries like Brazil, Thailand, India, China, Bangadesh, Colombia, Argentina, SouthAfrica, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Zimbabwe. For instance, during the 2015/16 year, Egypt and Japan’s upward revised output was by 350,000 tonnes and 56,000 tonnes respectively. Half of the output reduced by 577,000 tonnes in April’s update was caused by Brazil’s downward revised figures. World exports were reported to have increased by 236,000 with imports falling by 421,000. This consequently reduced unrecorded disappearance to approximately 1.5 million tonnes from 1.7 million in March.
Analysts claim that for the year 2016/17 Thailand’s sugar crop projection has been reduced by1.5 million to 10.5 million rather than achieving its previously targeted recovery to 12.0 million tonnes. This is attributed to Thailand’s worst drought in two decades that killed newly planted cane. In the same way, despite high productivity in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, India’s total output is viewed to be declining to 26.1 million tonnes from 2.8 million this season as dry weather and irrigation restrictions sweep its new cane production in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
Source: MITC, 19th May, 2016